Understanding the July Market Stats
As we head toward the fall market, Toronto’s July numbers suggest a housing market that is more balanced, and more nuanced, than the headlines might suggest.
For buyers, prices remain below last year’s levels across Toronto’s major home types, while sellers are still seeing meaningful demand for well-priced properties. At the same time, the Bank of Canada has now held its overnight rate at 2.25% for six consecutive decisions, providing some welcome stability for people planning their next move.
What Happened in July?
A grouped bar graph showing the year-over-year changes to sales and average prices across the three major housing types in Toronto
The standout here is that sales increased for detached homes and condos compared with July 2025, while prices remained lower across every major property type. Semi-detached homes were the biggest exception on the sales side, with transactions down 6.8% and the average price down almost 10%.
So, what does that mean if you're thinking about buying or selling?
If You’re a Buyer: You Have Room to be Selective
The biggest advantage for buyers right now is negotiating power.
Prices are still below where they were a year ago across all four major 416 property types. And, on top of that, active buyers are securing more deals throughout the city with homes being purchased for less than market value!
That doesn't necessarily mean you should wait for prices to fall further.
If you've found a home that fits your budget, your lifestyle and your long-term plans, today's market can offer an opportunity to negotiate rather than trying to perfectly time the bottom.
For buyers, I'd focus less on "Will prices be lower six months from now?" and more on:
Can I comfortably afford the home at today's mortgage rates?
Am I buying a property I would be happy to own for several years?
Is the asking price supported by recent sales in the neighbourhood?
How much negotiating room is there based on the property's condition and time on market?
And if you're considering a condo, July's 416 numbers are particularly interesting: 1,054 condo apartments sold, making them by far the most active segment, while the average price was $672,807; only 1.6% below last year. That suggests the condo market may be finding a little more stability than some of the headlines would have you believe.
If You’re a Seller: Pricing Matters More than Ever
For sellers, July's numbers are a reminder that buyers are still watching their budgets closely.
The good news is that demand hasn't disappeared. Detached sales were up 2.8%, townhouse sales jumped 8.7%, and condo sales increased 3.3% year-over-year in the 416.
But buyers have options, and they're less likely to overlook an unrealistic asking price.
That makes pricing your property correctly from day one especially important. A home that is priced competitively can attract attention early, while an ambitious price can result in fewer showings, more time on the market and eventual price reductions.
This is particularly relevant for semi-detached homes, where the July average price was down 9.9% year-over-year.
What Should You Do Next?
The July market doesn't give us a reason to rush in either direction.
If you're buying: take advantage of the increased negotiating power, but don't wait indefinitely for a hypothetical "perfect" market.
If you're selling: focus on what buyers are actually paying for comparable homes today, rather than anchoring your expectations to what a similar property sold for a year or two ago.
And for anyone considering a move, remember that the 416 isn't one single market. A condo in the downtown core, a semi in the east end and a detached home in midtown can have very different levels of demand and pricing.
The best strategy is less about trying to predict Toronto's entire housing market and more about understanding your particular neighbourhood, property type and financial situation.
Thinking about making a move this fall? Let's look at what the July numbers mean for your specific home and neighbourhood.
